Guinea-Bissau’s “Takeover”: Coup, Calculated Drama, or a Crisis Long in the Making?

By Dr. Michael Omoruyi | iNewsAfrica

The recent events in Guinea-Bissau have once again pulled West Africa into the familiar fog of confusion, power struggles, and political theatrics. Whether one calls it a coup, an attempted coup, or—as some insiders boldly describe it—a carefully choreographed “sham,” the deeper truth is this: West Africa is trapped in a recurring cycle of instability because the structures that should guarantee democracy remain dangerously fragile.

Guinea-Bissau’s sudden military confrontation, followed by contradictory statements from political actors, has left analysts divided. But its root causes stretch far beyond this week’s headlines. The country has endured decades of political volatility, fragmented institutions, and a security sector that often behaves like a political referee rather than a disciplined arm of state authority.

A Coup That Doesn’t Fit the Script?

Traditional coups have a clear signature: the president is ousted, communication channels seized, and the military steps forward as the new authority. What happened in Guinea-Bissau seems more ambiguous. Elements within the armed forces clashed; government offices were disrupted; and the new leader suspended the legislature—turning the constitution on its head without formally calling it a coup.

This ambiguity is dangerous. It allows political elites to weaponize confusion, manipulate public perception, and use “security threats” as justification for personal power consolidation. West Africa has seen this tactic before—in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea—where political dysfunction created fertile ground for military intervention.

The Real Crisis: When Institutions Fail, Power Becomes a Free-for-All

Guinea-Bissau’s turmoil is not an isolated case. Across the region, weak institutions and personalized politics have turned governance into a tug of war. Presidents distrust parliaments. Parliaments distrust presidents. Militaries distrust everyone. Democracy becomes lost in the middle.

The tragedy is that ordinary citizens—struggling with poverty, unemployment, and insecurity—are the ones who suffer most. Every episode of instability pushes development backward by years. Investors flee. Public services collapse. The country becomes more vulnerable to transnational crime and political manipulation from external actors.

A Region at Risk of Becoming Desensitized to Coups

One of the greatest dangers today is the normalization of unconstitutional power grabs. The coups in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea have created a trend—a dangerous new political vocabulary that makes instability sound acceptable.

When political actors label a takeover “a sham,” it signals that the lines between legitimate governance and opportunistic disruption have blurred beyond recognition.

If African leaders, regional bodies, and global partners fail to act, Guinea-Bissau may become yet another case study in how democracies collapse—not with a dramatic overthrow, but through gradual erosion, internal sabotage, and calculated political games.

West Africa Must Confront Hard Truths

This moment demands more than condemnations. It requires honest introspection:

• Why are militaries stepping into politics so easily?

• Why do elected governments become increasingly authoritarian once in power?

• Why do citizens feel that neither side truly represents their interests?

Until these questions are addressed, West Africa will continue to swing between democratic promises and military interruptions.

Guinea-Bissau’s crisis may be framed as a “sham” or a “coup,” but the more important issue is what it reveals about the fragility of governance in the region. Stability will not come from political theatrics or military grandstanding—it will come from rebuilding trust, strengthening institutions, and ensuring that power is used to serve citizens rather than control them.

West Africa deserves better. Guinea-Bissau deserves better. Africa deserves better.

Dr. Michael Omoruyi is a technologist, author, and advocate for governance reform and African socio-political development. His perspectives focus on leadership, digital transformation, and Africa’s democratic future.

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