More Nigerians Expected to Fall into Poverty by 2027 – World Bank Warns

|Published 12:05 PM ET, Friday April 25, 2025|

Abuja – April 25, 2025 — The World Bank has projected that poverty in Nigeria will remain alarmingly high through 2027, with a minimal decline expected despite recent economic reforms. The grim forecast indicates that the national poverty rate—based on the global threshold of $2.15 per person per day—is expected to reach 43.9% in 2025 and marginally drop to 43.2% by 2027.

In 2023, approximately 109 million Nigerians, or 49% of the population, were classified as living in poverty. An additional 47 million were identified as economically vulnerable and at significant risk of slipping below the poverty line. The World Bank attributes these worsening conditions to recent policy changes, such as the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rates. While these reforms aim to stabilize the economy long-term, they have triggered immediate economic hardships, including surging inflation and a steep rise in the cost of living.

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To cushion the impact, the Nigerian government secured a $2.25 billion loan from the World Bank. Of this amount, $1.5 billion is allocated to support households affected by the economic reforms, and $800 million is earmarked for a direct cash transfer program intended to reach up to 70 million Nigerians.

However, implementation challenges remain. The World Bank notes that as of 2018, only 17% of Nigerian households were covered by any form of social safety net, with fewer than 1% receiving direct cash assistance. The lack of adequate social protection threatens the effectiveness of government relief efforts.

The report also highlights the role of climate change in worsening Nigeria’s poverty crisis. In recent years, extreme flooding destroyed over 1.5 million hectares of cropland and displaced more than nine million people, placing additional pressure on food security and rural livelihoods.

While international partners have commended Nigeria’s commitment to structural reform, the World Bank emphasizes the need for consistent policy implementation, expanded social safety nets, and targeted international support to alleviate the short-term burdens faced by the country’s most vulnerable populations.

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