Nigeria’s Rural Crisis: A Growing Threat to Tinubu’s Leadership and National Stability

|Published 3:30 PM ET, Sunday April 27, 2025|

By Michael Omruyi, Ph.D.

Nigeria’s rural heartland is burning — and with it, the credibility of President Bola Tinubu’s government is rapidly eroding. A spiraling wave of violence between nomadic herders and sedentary farmers, compounded by a resurgent Boko Haram faction and unchecked arms proliferation, has plunged parts of the country into deadly chaos.

In April 2025 alone, over 150 lives were lost in the north-central states of Benue and Plateau — the deadliest month since late 2023. Thousands more were displaced, their futures now hostage to a conflict that Nigeria’s leaders have failed, time and again, to meaningfully address.

This violence is not new. It is rooted in long-standing land and resource disputes, inflamed further by climate change pressures and a steady influx of weapons. Yet what is new — and deeply troubling — is the growing sense that Nigeria’s central government is either unwilling or unable to arrest the collapse of rural security.

President Tinubu’s administration has made gestures: increasing defense spending, appointing new security chiefs, and promising reforms. But on the ground, the results remain tragically thin. Security forces remain overstretched and under-resourced. Systemic reforms have not materialized fast enough. And political missteps — such as Tinubu’s ill-timed three-week European trip during the height of the killings — have fueled public anger and disillusionment.

Meanwhile, the religious dimension of the conflict has drawn international scrutiny. American conservative groups are pressing for Nigeria’s return to a U.S. blacklist of religious freedom violators — a move that would have serious diplomatic and economic consequences. Nigeria’s Foreign Ministry insists that the violence is driven more by competition for land than by religious hatred, but the optics tell a more complicated story that the government cannot afford to ignore.

At its core, this rural crisis is a warning shot for Nigeria’s future. If left unaddressed, it could erode national unity, cripple economic development, and invite greater international isolation. Nigeria cannot build a 21st-century economy on the quicksand of unresolved rural conflicts.

The path forward demands more than military solutions. It requires urgent investment in climate adaptation strategies, arms control initiatives, and a structural shift from open grazing to sustainable ranching practices. Above all, it demands political courage — the willingness to confront uncomfortable truths and make difficult reforms, even at significant political cost.

President Tinubu’s legacy, and Nigeria’s future, may very well hinge on whether he can meet this moment with vision and resolve. Anything less risks consigning Nigeria’s vast rural heartland — and by extension the entire nation — to a cycle of violence and instability from which it may not easily recover.