Exclusive-Harris holds steady, marginal 46%-43% lead over Trump, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

Story by Reuters

October 15, 2024 | 06:20 PM ET |

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris held a marginal 3-percentage-point lead over Republican Donald Trump – 45% to 42% – as the two stayed locked in a tight race to win the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

Harris also held a 3-percentage-point lead among likely voters, who supported her 47% to 44%. The poll had a margin of error of around 4 percentage points.

While the gap between the two remained steady compared with a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted a week earlier, the new poll, which closed on Sunday, gave signs that voters – particularly Democrats – might be more enthused about this year’s election than they were ahead of the November 2020 presidential election when Democrat Joe Biden defeated Trump.

Some 78% of registered voters in the three-day poll – including 86% of Democrats and 81% of Republicans – said they were “completely certain” they would cast a ballot in the presidential election. The share of sure-to-vote poll respondents was up from 74% in a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted Oct. 23-27, 2020, when 74% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans said they were certain to cast ballots.

Harris appears to be drawing strength from voters picking her as the better candidate for healthcare policy and for handling political extremism, although voters also rate the U.S. economy as the top issue in the election and said Trump was the better economic steward, according to the new poll.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 938 U.S. adults online, nationwide, including 807 registered voters. Among these, 769 were considered the most likely to turn out on Election Day.

(Reporting by Jason Lange in Washington; editing by Scott Malone and Jonathan Oatis)